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The Melbourne Mail: Flemington – 5th of July 2025
Winter Finals day at Flemington with a deep betting card for a great day.
An outstanding day (as always) for Winter Finals day with a great mix of progressive up-and-comers and established old stars.
She's An Artist certainly fits the former mould with a huge 108 rating performance in an 1100m handicap at her second outing and looks a very deserving favourite of the Creswick Stakes.
$1.65 there is passable for betting purposes, while $2.30 looks fair for Knobelas in the Silver Bowl Final. She's been dominant at her past two and her weight-adjusted rating is strong, backed up by late splits and a profile that says she'll go again.
Not one to be deterred by 'noisy form factors' but equicast on first time is enough to look further afield at that skinny end of the market, and so our best bet will come up in the Banjo Paterson Final – Race 5.
Virtuous Circle took a while to find his form this preparation but put the writing on the wall here last time out. After four runs in the 90's off a long spell, he improved to 103 last time when closing off strongly, finally finding a race with some tempo.
The sectionals there were excellent, the mark up showing he was finishing all over the top of them, and while he may not have the early speed to take up a position from the gate, he can land in front of a few more than usual.
Ready to win now and the favourite Captain Electric looks awfully short, the market hanging onto a heavy track win first up.
For the value play(s) we'll head to the feature and back in the Winter pinup boy Jimmy The Bear to turn the tables on Oh Too Good.
On paper, that seems tricky given Oh Too Good walloped Jimmy when they met and meets him better at the weights for doing so, but Jimmy was given none there and I'm a bit sceptical of the rating and form in isolation.
A big spike of 113 (+11lb) on her previous run, I can see Oh Too Good regressing, while Jimmy has gone 112-114-105-116 this time in.
The wide draw for Jimmy isn't ideal if the tactics are going to be negative but this race shape should set up differently, and the SP's against Oh Too Good that day were strong.
I'll also have something on Detonator Jack who hit the line well fresh at Sandown off 221 days. At his best he's right up to winning this and he should improve lengths out to a mile second up.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 5 #3 Virtuous Circle at $6.50
Also backing: Race 8 #3 Jimmy The Bear at 6.50 & #2 Detonator Jack at $17
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