Racing
Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes Preview 2025
Two horses dominate the Winterbottom market – who holds the ratings edge?
With Overpass and Jokers Grin holding over three quarters of the market percentage, the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) is being touted as a match race.
The sprinting king of Ascot, Overpass, had been infallible in the West, winning back-to-back Winterbottom Stakes and back-to-back Quokka's, posting remarkably similarTimeform
ratings with each victory.That streak was ended earlier this year as Bjorn Baker's FIFO speedster was beaten by Bernie Miller's fast finishing Jokers Grin, posting his worst rating at Ascot by some nine pounds on the Timeform scale.
Much had been made of the lead in run and gap between runs Overpass had heading to Perth each time, so we've laid them out:
Quokka 2023 - 1up (154 days) TF: 119 (1st)
Wbottom 2023 - 3rd up (49 days) TF: 119 (1st)
Quokka 2024 - 1up (140 days) TF: 122 (1st)
Wbottom 2024 - 3rd up (21 days) TF: 119 (1st)
Quokka 2025 - 2nd up (21 days) TF: 110 (5th)
This year is ever so slightly different again, coming in second up, but off 42 days. Does this mean anything? Probably not. Fitting racehorses into these narrow boxes rarely holds true.
What we do know, is that he's coming into this year's Winterbottom as well as ever.
Last start in The Everest, Overpass ran to a new career peak of 123, one pound better than his previous peak of 122, which he'd run in the 2024 Quokka win, among three other times – two in Sydney and one in Queensland.
A rating of 123 would almost surely win on Saturday, and modelling him around that rating would have him deep odds-on.
Since the race became a Group 1 in 2010, no horse has run up to that rating- the best being 122, achieved by Buffering and Hey Doc in 2013 and 2019 respectively.
The key for Overpass is how he wins his races. He's either led or sat outside the leader in all five Ascot runs and there looks to be very little pressure here, which could make things very tough for the ones chasing.
Jokers Grin announced himself as Perth's star sprinter in The Quokka with a huge win, coming from near last and posting a new peak Timeform rating of 116 in the process.
In two runs this campaign he's run 115 and 120 last start when winning the Colonel Reeves, in an adjusted time rating of 120 (which is effectively the overall time, adjusted for sectionals, converted into pounds)
Overpass has never run a time rating in the 120's (his fastest win coming in at 114). It's not everything, but it's interesting.
The key for Jokers Grin is to settle closer to Overpass. If he can land midfield, he suddenly becomes a huge threat, but I think Overpass deserves to be favourite given we know how this race will set up in his favour.
Rey Magnerio holds a peak Timeform rating of 118, while Rope Them In ran 117 last start. Both are each-way hopes but I'd especially say the latter will find it tough drawn very wide – if you're settling near Jokers Grin, you'll struggle.
The filly Luana Miss is very progressive through the Placid Ark but it's a huge leap – she's rated 100, which comes up to 104 given her sex allowance. Oscar's Fortune was a bit better than that when he ran second to Overpass as a three-year-old.
My Bella Mae won the Placid Ark with a Timeform rating of 101 in 2022 but didn't measure up in the Winterbottom when ninth, while Kid Choisir won the Placid Ark with a rating of 109 (the highest on record) but could only manage eighth in the Group 1.
All is to say, I think Overpass turns the tables on Jokers Grin. They're both coming off career peaks which sets up for a cracker, but the lack of pressure up front might just make him too tough to reel in.
Check out our FREE full form, ratings for meetings in nine countries each and every day.