Racing
The Quokka Preview 2025
Overpass has won the first two editions of the Quokka. Is a three-peat on the cards?
The King of Ascot is back with Overpass hunting his third Kia Quokka in as many years, while also picking up a pair of Winterbottom Stakes in the West.
He's been prepared incredibly well by Bjorn Baker to do so, turning up to the Ascot 1200m on four occasions and running to his best form and rating, which the others simply haven't been able to match.
This year, Baker brings Overpass to The Quokka second-up, off a break of 21 days, having previously gone in fresh, however he won his latest Winterbottom stakes off the same three-week gap.
The ratings he's been able to produce out West have been remarkably consistent. In the inaugural Quokka, Overpass ran to a Racing & Sports rating of 119, which was a slight new career peak (up from 118).
He then headed back East and managed to run a pair of 120's without winning behind Giga Kick and Private Eye before returning for the Winterbottom and going 119 again.
His next run was last year's Quokka where he'd go 120, bettering that in a dominant Sydney Stakes win at 122 before returning for a second Winterbottom with a RAS rating of 119.
Four starts over the Ascot 1200m for ratings of 119-119-120-119, and there's no reason to doubt he won't run that race again.
Second in the T J Smith Stakes on resumption, he's run to an equal career peak of 122 when overrun by a nose late, and no doubt Baker would've left a bit of Quokka-juice in the tank.
It's pretty safe to model him running his race, and that spells trouble for the others. No other horse in the field has managed to run at that level, and the majority of the field are well off it.
Over 1200m, a length is approximately equal to four pounds on the RAS scale. Assuming Overpass runs his Ascot rating, only three horses in this year's field boast a rating that gets within a length.
Headwall is one of them having run to 117 last start, having been beaten 1.3 lengths (five pounds) by Overpass in the T J Smith when running into third.
The sectionals there off a slow speed suggested he'd run every bit as well as Overpass who was paced more efficiently, but that is a big part of the reason he's won all these races.
When the best horse in the race is on speed and pacing their race efficiently, they win more often than not.
Western Empire (116) and Front Page (115) also have a semi-competitive rating, but both are veterans. We know their level.
Western Empire's 116 came in the Gold Rush (1400m) before a spell, out-sped when given a strong chance in the Winterbottom prior. Going in here fresh looks a smart set play from the Williams' stable, but to forecast him running a new peak is tough.
Similarly, Front Page is coming off an equal best of 115 when second in The Galaxy but doesn't profile as a horse that can go to another level.
The local with that sort of profile is Jokers Grin, who will line up for just his 10th start. He's able to reel off a scintillating late sectional that has hinted he's got the ability of a very good horse.
Rated 112, he'd need to improve a couple of lengths to be challenging, and the last bit of 1200m is possibly a query, but he'd be the pick of the locals from The Boss Lady who edged him out in the Roma Cup last start.
It's impossible to go past Overpass from a ratings' perspective because we've seen him produce form that the others can't match on four occasions. He does everything the right way and is coming off an equal career peak first-up.
The draw is perfect for him, he can take his time coming across and get into a rhythm without being cluttered which is how he performs best. I think he'll run his race and be too strong again for Headwall who is the danger. Jokers Grin and The Boss Lady are the pick of the locals.
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