Harness
GOODFORM – TOC’s Good Friday analysis for Stawell
Tim O’Connor has done the form for the Good Friday meeting at Stawell.
Race 1:OVERVIEW: The Good Friday meeting kicks off with the first of two heats for the Pleasant Creek Plate, where qualifiers move through to a $10,000 final as race nine on the card. BETTORSWEETVICTORY (3) is flying for trainer Ross Graham with powerful, dominant victories his last two at Charlton and Bendigo. They've been in easier grade than this, but he's been so impressive and full of running that he has to go on top here. Stablemate FINAL BOW (7) is also hitting the line hard lately and must be respected despite the awkward gate, HUXHAM CHUBB (10) backed up some good runs at Charlton and Ararat with an easy win at Terang on Friday, while FOREGONE CONCLUSION (5) has been close-up in harder races his last four, but has drawn gate one on every occasion. He's unlikely to find the fence here.
SELECTIONS: BETTORSWEETVICTORY (3), FINAL BOW (7), HUXHAM CHUBB (10), FOREGONE CONCLUSION (5)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: Heat two of the Pleasant Creek Plate here and it looks an intriguing battle with stacks of speed off the front line and plenty of winning hopes. Leaning to OPTIMAL (10), who was unlucky when held up at Ararat last time and ran a nice second to the handy Shaq before that at Maryborough. With the speed on, he should be charging late. Would have VILLAGE VOICE (8) on top from probably any other draw, but just worried where she ends up from inside the back row. She's flying and is very ready to win after a string of placings, including a runner-up effort when just missing in a photo to Wazowski last time. ITTAKESLUV (2), who was good closing hard for second despite a wide last lap latest, and the first-up HUNGRY HOGARTH (11) head a host of other winning chances.
SELECTIONS: OPTIMAL (10), VILLAGE VOICE (8), ITTAKESLUV (2), HUNGRY HOGARTH (11)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: DOT BALL (6) was a winner at Echuca three starts back, ran on well in a leader-dominated race at Charlton after that and had no chance from last in a slick last half at Bendigo latest. He's more than capable of pinching this low-grade event, despite his tricky gate. ZWICK (8) made a mistake at the start and took no part in his first-up run at Terang on Friday, but is worth another chance as the sole back row runner here. He defeated the in-form Bettorsweetvictory late last year at St Arnaud from three back the pegs, and that reads well now given that horse's form. WATCH IT HAPPEN (7) beat home STELLAR QUEEN (3) and ALOOK TO LIKE (4) when coming wide for the last lap at Ararat on March 23, but the other two had some excuses and draw inside this time around.
SELECTIONS: DOT BALL (6), ZWICK (8), STELLAR QUEEN (3), WATCH IT HAPPEN (7)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: BETTORPATCHMEUP (3) has run a couple of great third placings at Ararat in recent weeks, and I'll take a chance on him at likely each-way odds. Rory Coverdale's charge ripped home hard from four back the fence on March 23 and was actually in front not long after the line, with that performance following a looping effort from last on Cup night. He's going well and can win an open event. WOW YOU CAN DANCE (5) chased hard for second behind Huxham Chubb at Terang last Friday, HOME AND DRY (8) won well from the front at Bendigo latest and LESTER (4) was a good winner at Charlton three back. His best is good enough in a race where they could all win without surprising.
BACK: BETTORPATCHMEUP (3) – 1 unit (each-way)SELECTIONS: BETTORPATCHMEUP (3), WOW YOU CAN DANCE (5), HOME AND DRY (8), LESTER (4)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: ROCKNROLL WILLOW (6) returns for her first start as a three-year-old and is clearly the class runner here in this 0-2 win event. She was competitive through the Breeders Crown Series – running second in a heat and eighth in the final – and has won both her trials in readiness for this. She should be too smart. LUCKY VINCENT (2) ran well in a hot race behind Mount Barker Boy at Bendigo last week when getting a soft peg-line run, MEDIA MOGUL (4) is first-up for new trainer Michael Bellman and won a Maryborough trial by 80m early this week, while ONYX (8) won his maiden in good style and then had excuses last time at Terang when well beaten.
BACK: ROCKNROLL WILLOW (6) – 3 units (win)SELECTIONS: ROCKNROLL WILLOW (6), LUCKY VINCENT (2), MEDIA MOGUL (4), ONYX (8)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: THATS KEVIN (8) ran a cracker for second in a good race on Terang Cup night last Friday when he closed off strongly from the running line. There was a few handy rivals there, including the winner Keayang Dreamgirl. SOHO TIGER LILY (1) looks the early leader and that should give THATS KEVIN (8) every chance to run her down in the home straight, with the pole-marker looking to go one better after a runner-up placing at Ararat on debut. MAGELLAN (9) hasn't been beaten far in two of her three runs this campaign, while BUBBLE OVER (8) went awfully close at Ararat last time and can win with the right trip.
BACK: THATS KEVIN (8) – 2.5 units (win)SELECTIONS: THATS KEVIN (8), SOHO TIGER LILY (1), MAGELLAN (9), BUBBLE OVER (7)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: I tipped TORQUE POWER (11) at Melton on Saturday night and he ran a good race for second behind Popcornfriday in what was a stronger event than this. Yes, he had the fence there and won't get that here, but he looks ready to win and this is a very suitable assignment for a horse of his ability. He clashed with a number of these rivals at Ararat recently and ran third ahead of KING KASEY (6) – who might be able to improve second-up – SPORTSBOU (8) and OUR ULTIMATE GRACY (10), who was disappointing but had good form prior. Hard race and the chances don't stop there.
SELECTIONS: TORQUE POWER (11), KING KASEY (6), SPORTSBOU (8), OUR ULTIMATE GRACY (10)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: Big field for the sole trotting event of the day where the wide spread of handicaps makes for an intriguing race. That said, KAMARAN (3) was a massive winner in a race five of these horses contested at Ararat on March 23 and he's fancied to score again. He trotted cleanly for the first time since joining the Peter Manning yard on that occasion and won by 33.5m despite not finding the fence. He only gets a 10m handicap lift and that might not be enough to stop him. FREMARKS PEGGY (4) was competitive in the Charlton Trotters Cup last time out and gets the services of star reinsman James Herbertson here, IM ABOVE THE LAW (12) and FLOATING MOUNTAIN (11) are the backmarkers off 40m but have some class on their side, while CHAMPAGNES (6), ATABOY CHARLIE (8) and BOUTIKA (9) are others that wouldn't shock.
BACK: KAMARAN (3) – 2.5 units (win)SELECTIONS: KAMARAN (3), FREMARKS PEGGY (4), IM ABOVE THE LAW (12), FLOATING MOUNTAIN (11)
Race 9:
Pleasant Creek Plate Final – field decided after race two.
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R4 #3 BETTORPATCHMEUP – 1 unit (each-way)
R5 #6 ROCKNROLL WILLOW – 3 units (win)
R6 #8 THATS KEVIN – 2.5 units (win)
R8 #3 KAMARAN – 2.5 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
3,7/1,2,5,7,8,10,11/3,6,7,8/3,4,5,8
QUADDIE
2,6/1,7,8,9/6,8,10,11/3,4
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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