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Insight Analysis

Talking Points: Northerly Stakes 2025

We look back at Cosmic Crusader’s win in the Northerly Stakes – how did he rate?

COSMIC CRUSADER winning the Tabtouch
COSMIC CRUSADER winning the Tabtouch Picture: Racing WA

After missing a run in the Railway Stakes, we at Racing & Sports argued that Cosmic Crusader likely would've won the race, having run a higher rating in the Carbine Club on the same day.

That argument was only strengthened on Saturday as he saw off Railway winner Watch Me Rock in a thrilling Northerly Stakes in a big, fast time figure race that saw the pair put nearly five lengths on Western Empire in third.

Cosmic Crusader has run a new peakTimeform rating of 120 on Saturday, which betters the 116 rating he'd run to win the Carbine Club last time out, and edges his 119 peak he ran winning by 8.5 lengths over the Belmont winter.

The overall time is great here, around eight lengths inside the RAS standard time on ground that wasn't playing overly quick (no other race broke standard).

While this is expected given the Northerly Stakes should be the fastest 1800m race at Ascot every year, a time figure of 120 is very good and the margins back to established horses highlight how well the first two have gone.

Compared to previous Northerly Stakes winners, Cosmic Crusader is right up there. Since the turn of the century, only four horses have run a higher Timeform rating, and they all came in at 121.

Arcadia Queen, Niconero (x2) and Stratum Star all hit that number in this race, noting that Arcadia Queen hit 124 on the RAS scale due to her weight allowance pulling her down.

It's better than recent winners Light Infantry Man and Regal Power (116), Truly Great and Dom To Shoot (115) and Amelia's Jewel (114).

Cosmic Crusader now backs up in the Gold Rush at 1400m which is interesting. Since the race became the Gold Rush in 2022, six horses have backed up from the Northerly Stakes for 0 winners, and Super Smink (3rd) is the only placegetter.

The market has only expected 0.6 winners in that time and none will be nearly as highly rated as Cosmic Crusader, but it sets up to be arguably the highlight of The Pinnacles.

With Jokers Grin and Overpass beaten in the Winterbottom, but both queries at 1400m, against Cosmic Crusader back sharply in trip off a fast Group 1 win at 1800m, there'll be plenty of opinions and it should be a great betting race.


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