Racing
Emirates Day an exceptional epilogue to Cup week
The last day of Cup week at Flemington is Emirates Day and apart from being the likely sunniest meeting out of four by far it also has some epic clashes on the card.
World class sprinting power will be on display in a race that should be promoted as the 'Magnificent Seven' and a couple of staying names that did not get onto the Melbourne Cup stage last Tuesday get a chance to sing and swig.R.1
LIEUTENANT COLONEL is bred to perform as a youngster and be fluent and fleet of foot, with both dad and mum precocious babies themselves. His sire Flying Spur won the 1995 G1 Golden Slipper (1200m) and was both all power and pace, while the dam Regimental Gal won three times out of four as a juvenile. She won at G2 and G3 as a three-year-old filly early in the season then reappeared in the late summer fresh up and for the first time at Flemington with the deserved reputation as a Queenslander that could fly. She scored fresh up at G1 in the Lightning Stakes (1000m) on the track and proved it was no fluke by a month later finishing a close third at G1 in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) behind the strong and slick Exceed And Excel. Two weeks later Regimental Gal would lead throughout and win again at G1 in the Australia Stakes (1200m). It is worth taking betting orders from this colt on debut.
WHITLAM is a nicely bred colt being by Elusive Quality from the Danehill dam Weaver Of Words and on debut could be 'it's time' for bettors to get on and prosper. Don't dismiss Gough here!
RUNNING TALL is by the 2005 G1 Golden Slipper (1200m) winning sire Stratum, which is leaving early winners across a broad breeding spectrum. The local stable of Danny O'Brien usually only run early juveniles if they have immense power and have shown precocity. Drawn to rise above these at his debut.
R.2
NO JURISDICTION did not tackle the race just for grey gallopers on Oaks Day owing to the wet track, so his trainer has opted for this mile, where improved footing is almost assured. Forget last start when G1 was beyond it but prior finished a solid second from a bad gate when slow out and before that never handled the slow footing fresh up. Ready to show something and may pay overs here.
MACKNUCKLE has when produced third up before the record of a win, a second and a Listed fourth from three outings, so he delivers in this state. He won fresh up brilliantly at Rosehill and placed last start at the same track despite being Canberra trained. The gelding has come to Melbourne before and in the early spring of 2009 raced twice at Moonee Valley and once at Flemington. He finished fourth over 1700m behind Speed Gifted at Flemington second up and then finished fourth at Listed level at the Valley behind Alcopop, so the motor is there.
BERTONIC has had his light career to date well spaced and this is his fifth campaign plus his two runs this preparation have been out of character, as he is usually in the money or close up. The longest campaign he has had so far is four starts, so expect him to show something real soon. Won his only visit to Flemington and third up has recorded from three outings two thirds and a Listed fourth. Disregard his mile record statline saying two starts for nothing, as he has drawn wide both times and come from last to finish fourth at Listed level and a close up fifth. He has placed over 2000m at Listed level so no worries finding the line though the ace barrier not entirely helpful. Gate one was disastrous on the first three days of Cup week on wet tracks getting chopped up by race and rail movement but it is amazing what some sun can do between Oaks Day and this Emirates Day. The rider Ben Melham may need some calming down for the Peter Moody stable here, as he will be under intense pressure and scrutiny come Race Five today.
R.3
LARISTAN looks well weighted here this former European trained galloper and has won fresh up his last two preparations over 1900m. This grey entire wants as decent a footing as possible hence his non-appearance on raceday in Australia yet. Remember the name for this carnival next year, as already a Listed winner at Toulouse over 2400m in 2:28.02 on top of the ground.
RED COLOSSUS last start tackled the freak So You Think at G1 under WFA in the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) and was not disgraced finishing fifth beaten six and a half lengths paying $151. Once you put into context the beatings So You Think has dished out this spring at G1 to already well proven gallopers the magnitude of the Red Colossus effort begins to glow. He had placed in his previous three outings this season, with two under big weights and one at Listed level. Fifth up he won last season over 1800m at Listed level and apart from that outrageous effort last start at G1 here at Flemington he has raced on the track one more time. The outcome was a good sixth at Listed level beaten two lengths behind Carrara, which would win at G2 its next start then place second in the wonder form race of last season, the G1 Caulfield Guineas. Speaking of form races here are two names that finished seventh and eighth behind Red Colossus in that Listed race right here, namely Shamoline Warrior (Listed and G3 winner since) and Chartreux (G1 winner since). Red Colossus will be plunged here for sure and remarkably could be paying fifty times less than last start or even shorter.
PACINO has been everywhere of late and does not know if he is 'Al' or 'Val', with visits to Sydney then back to Melbourne then back to Sydney. He needs decent footing and actually races well at Flemington and over 2000m, so could be the upsetter here. This will be his sixth different rider in as many starts this preparation but the last time he won a race, which came over 2000m at Caulfield mid-August in 2009, was for jockey Brad Rawiller. He is on again and does seem to suit the horse, with in fact the second to last time it won saw him aboard too.
R.4
NO HESITATION found the G1 class a bit rich on Derby Day here but this is a huge drop in horsepower and at 57kg fourth up and Hugh Bowman aboard bettors should have no hesitation in including him. Bowman has ridden the gelding once on raceday before for a bolt in win under 58kg albeit as a juvenile. He also trialled the horse twice before it resumed but has not been on him on raceday this season, so the right rider is back aboard here. Also has already scored at 1400m, which is relevant in age group racing.
TERRITORY is not really comfortable in really wet ground but is such a trier that the colt still puts in regardless. His last start fifth at Caulfield at Listed level over 1400m on heavy ground came behind Mr Chard, which has won its next two starts at G3 and Listed level. Waiting for decent footing is the key with this colt by trainer Lee Freedman and the 59kg here is not a stopper. It won two starts back right here at Flemington over 1400m at Listed level and defeated on dead footing that day none other than Mr Chard.
TOOLBAG is a maiden colt that cost $1 million dollars, so he will want to build something soon or could have the toolbag removed! The colt just needs improved footing and the right attitude change through a gear addition rather than a gear removal of a couple of things! A roomy Flemington should make the colt more tractable.
R.5
This is the Magnificent Seven of sprinting this spring and on a decent and fair track, which will have cushion for certain, what a drag race down the straight six of Flemington at G1 under WFA for three quarters of a million dollars.
You have three runners in the race yet to be beaten at Flemington and one other that has won four from five at the track. You have an unbeaten mare that is as big as a bus and nobody is fast enough to get on board yet. You have a giant gelding that has won twelve of his fourteen starts and he is unbeaten this season.
This field of seven has four runners that have won over a million dollars (including two over a million and a half) and the lowest stake earner is incredibly 738K, so we have big money earners competing against each other.
The field is made up of three strapping geldings (aged five or six), three mares (aged four or five) and one three-year-old colt.
The G1 proven performers in the field are plentiful and only two of them have not won at the greatest height, with strangely the hot favourite and unbeaten Black Caviar being one of them.
It looks like another bionic brawl between the big girl Black Caviar and the big boy Hay List but stranger things have happened.
All Silent loves Flemington and flopped badly last start at Caulfield on a bog, so it is no surprise he has been scratched numerous times since waiting for decent footing.
Eagle Falls has not won at G1 yet but has come close and he had no luck last start at Moonee Valley being squeezed back then only getting through between runners late. He races well here at Flemington.
Melito is unbeaten second up in three races in such a state but was treated for burns fresh up this season, that is being scorched by Black Caviar. Her course record shows two runs for a single placing but they are totally misleading for many reasons. Firstly she was a distant third at G2 against just her own age and sex in a 2000m fillies race and then was a very distant last at G1 in the Crown Oaks (2500m).
Ortensia is a G1 winner but she has been disqualified from that though it is under appeal. The mare is lethal fresh up having won three of five in that state and placed the other time. Her course record is a Listed second, when red hot, and a fresh up sixth at G2 behind a rival again in All Silent from which she got 3.5kg and here will receive just 2kg.
Star Witness won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) here last Saturday easily second up and is a three-year-old colt with serious power. He has run in just two races at G1 so far in a seven-race career and won them both, so is a big stage galloper. Two starts back fresh up he finished a decent fourth beaten four lengths in the G2 Schillaci Stakes (1000m) at Caulfield and hung out in the running, when carrying 53kg under WFA. The winner that day, also fresh up, was Black Caviar carrying 3.5kg more and on Saturday she will have just 3kg more than Star Witness, which shows just why that mare is built to scare.
This race will be the biggest in the life of jockey Ben Melham, who takes the ride on the unbeaten Black Caviar for the first time owing to regular pilot Luke Nolen being suspended.
Melham will be carrying the hopes of millions of bettors literally but at least he will be aboard a female tank and a very fast one at that.
If it is any help Black Caviar won her first two ever raceday starts by five and six lengths respectively and was ridden by a Jarred Noske, with the debut coming right here at Flemington, so she could be an easy mare to ride being simply a hold on tight then detonate mare.
Miss this race and you must be G1 thoroughbred intolerant.
R.6
WALL STREET is nicely weighted here for a specialist miler that is a three time G1 winner. He found the G1 Cox Plate and So You Think a bit too talented last start but otherwise his record and form is tremendous and if the ground is slow or better then the gelding is the one to beat. He has won in 1:33.86 for a G1 mile and also in 1:41.24 for a G1 mile, so is footing versatile. Hugh Bowman riding is a huge tick, as he sums up a race rather quickly on New Zealand trained gallopers.
DRUMBEATS was huge late last start at Moonee Valley and Flemington is much more his go, as his record shows. He is at 53.5kg here and also well weighted being 2kg below Wall Street, as he was when they met in the G1 Doncaster (1600m) when finishing a super fourth and that rival again eleventh. It is the mile that he is yet to win at from five attempts that is the most worrying fact but the ability to be ridden cold or forward at least gives the rider options now.
CAPTAIN SONADOR and TRUSTING both ran in the G1 Cox Plate, with the former eighth and not having raced since and the latter ninth and running at G1 over 2000m at WFA since running into the freak So You Think again. This is the right race for them being a handicap mile and the better the footing comes up the more likely each will storm home from the back.
SNOW ALERT was stiff last start at Moonee Valley and scratched midweek on wet ground for this, where better footing looks likely and 52.5kg in a million dollar mile seems sublime. Definite win chance in a race that lighter weights have a good record in, as the track on the fourth day is always well tilled by traffic.
DAO DAO is from the David Hayes stable and he has a decent record in this race plus last year he produced All American to win and beat the freak So You Think. Dao Dao likes the mile and at G1 has finished second twice and third once, so at 54.5kg here looks lobbed into the race. His two course runs have produced a G2 third here under 58kg and the last start G3 sixth on a bog, also under 58kg.
The blowout in the race is GOLD SALUTE, which was third in it last year carrying 55kg behind All American and So You Think in a 1:34.47 run race. The gelding likes Flemington and no worries on a slow, dead or good track plus at 52.5kg he looks a trifecta must. It all comes down to his starting manners and the fact he has a history of lameness and can go an absolute shocker. Eyecatching run two starts back at G1 under 55.5kg paying $61 but had health issues again last start.
R.7
KEEP THE PEACE is a dual G1 winner and loves rain-affected footing, so is thrown in here at 55.5kg under the set weights and penalties conditions. Her form this season in New Zealand is a win at G1 under WFA over Wall Street, a win chance in the G1 Emirates mile today, and G1 placings behind that same horse under WFA at 1600m and 2040m. She has been aimed at this last day of the carnival soft kill for 300K and Australian G2 type plus she is most lethal fourth up from a spell, which is the state she will run here.
MUSIC REVIEW looks well in here at 54.5kg and even though she has only won up to 1900m has placed up to 2400m and roomy Flemington will be ideal. Last start got home nicely at Moonee Valley and better suited here at both the trip and the track.
MARHETA had no luck last start and has not really seen things go her way in three starts this season. She did perform best fourth, fifth and sixth up last season plus is stepped up to 2000m here, which is more her range. Mark Zahra rode last start for the first time this season and he gets the best out of the mare, so expect a form reversal here in a suitable race, distance and grade for big money plus she is from the in form Mike Moroney stable.
LADY LYNETTE is tough and durable and always a threat against just her own sex at 55.5kg. She won well last start and usually holds her winning form once she finds it. The mare under 54.5kg finished a close second in this race last year to a rival again in Purple, which had 57.5kg and that mare has not won a race since
R.8
EASTERN ARIA only missed a G1 Melbourne Cup start by a few berths. This mare can stay and 56kg here will seem like a dream plus she is owned by Godolphin, which have a decent record in a late carnival race such as this. She wants as good a footing as possible and can prove another order of entry point, as she surely would have been more worthy than several that struggled around last Tuesday. What beats her here should win and would be a fitting reward for trainer Mark Johnston, who hands her over to Team Godolphin after this.
DRUNKEN SAILOR was not well ridden in the Geelong Cup but should be suited by this extra 200m and can give Team Cumani something to make the trip downunder worthwhile
MR CHARLIE will find unleashing here at Flemington unhindered is much more achievable than waiting for Americain to get through a tight gap at Geelong then try to follow him and go with him closer in. The way he won his only start here suggests this track is his go plus could be part of a massive day for trainer Peter Moody.
FAINT PERFUME and CAPECOVER as Melbourne Cup aspirants could be chasing a 100K bonus here if successful and the former loves this track and has run into So You Think and Zipping here this season. This is lengths easier and handles most types of footing. The latter has won here and at 56kg looks a dangerous proven late spring stayer.
R.9
KEANO has won at 1400m and just needs improved footing to unleash his best closing kick here. He will find this lot easier than Set For Fame last start and even more so, Hay List at G3 under WFA the time before. Not an honest horse for bettors and last won a race in December 2009 but it did come here, his favourite track.
BAWAARDI had the blinkers on fresh up and still raced in or near the lead, so maybe that run will have taken the edge of him for this. He had some sly support and drops 4kg here, so should give a sight for the David Hayes stable.
ZAGREB has not won fresh up at his last four campaigns but too well placed here to be ignored, as he has run against some big names in his time. He has placed just once in eight runs at Flemington but it came at G1 under WFA in the Australian Cup. Another runner for the David Hayes stable, which sadly these days is now most dangerous with out of form fresh uppers that once had class or quality gallopers that need to grade drop to rediscover that form. Sort of like the system they use in Hong Kong of dropping back to a winnable grade after several failures!
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