Sports - Football
Expert Soccer Tips - EPL Round 16
Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
CHELSEA V EVERTON | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
LAY: Chelsea (Match Odds) for 3 unit (Rated at $1.75) If everything was normal, Chelsea should win, but it rarely is in the Premier League. Chelsea have scored first in 9/10 home matches while Everton have lost 11/14 away matches against top-six teams. But Chelsea have won just two of the five most recent meetings and just four of the past 10. There were three draws and three losses as well, so this is no free kick. The past four games in the past two seasons were 1-0, 0-0 6-0 and 0-2. Chelsea are in poor form right now. Before the 2-1 loss to Atalanta in the Champions League, they have not won any of their past three in the playoffs. They drew 0-0 with Bournemouth, lost 1-3 to Leeds and drew 1-1 with Arsenal. They had won five of six before that, so they are in a slump. I think Everton can get something from the gamer, so I am laying the home side.
LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
BACK: Liverpool (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $1.72) Liverpool are now in the post Mo Salah era. After comments he made to the press, he won't be playing for Arne Slot anytime soon I imagine. At least until he apologises, which I can't see happening. They had a stunning win in the Champions League, beating an Inter Milan side that had not lost a home CL game since 2022 (18 games). After a worrying run of nine defeats in 12 games, Slot's side are now unbeaten in four. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 14/18 Brighton away matches against middle-third teams and 13/19 Liverpool home matches. Both are on 23 points, but Brighton are two spots above Liverpool due to a +4 goal difference. The past six in the Head to Head ended 2-3, 2-1, 2-1, 2-2, 0-3 and 3-3, so we can expect goals. Seven of the past 10 meetings went Over 2.5 goals. It's hard to find value, as Liverpool are $1.72, Yes is $1.64 in the Both Teams to Score market and the Over 2.5 goals is $1.60. So the best outcome there is a Liverpool win, so that will do us. They should win now they are on a roll.
BURNLEY V FULHAM | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
LAY: Draw (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $3.60) Burnley are already five points away from safety, and if Fulham win, along with Leeds and Nottingham Forest, it will be eight points and that's real trouble. Burnley have conceded first in 5/7 home matches and they have lost 4/7 home matches. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 13/19 Fulham away matches. The only four times these teams met in recent times was season 20/21 (1-1 and 2-0 to Burnley) and season 23/24 (2-0 to Burnley and 2-2), so Fulham don't have a good record against them. Fulham away from home this season have one win, against Spurs two weeks back, but before that, had five straight away losses, which followed an opening day away draw (1-1 with Brighton). Six of the seven Burnley home games has seen just one side score so far, so that rules out Yes in the Both Teams to Score market. Five of the seven away games for Fulham saw both score. None of the seven home games went Over 2.5 goals either, yet four of the seven away for Fulham did. In 30 games played by both sides this season (15 each), there have been just three draws. So I am laying the draw here.
ARSENAL V WOLVES | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
BACK: Over 2.5 goals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $1.60) Top plays bottom, and 33 points plays two points. Arsenal have won 16/19 home matches against bottom-six teams while Wolves have lost 13/17 away matches against top-six teams. Arsenal are $1.15 and should be $1.01, and No in the Both Teams to Score market is $1.52. The Over 2.5 goals is $1.60 but you could only back that if you see Arsenal winning 3-0 or better. Arsenal have won the past eight meetings straight, with six clean sheets, and an aggregate of 17-2. Another agonising afternoon for Wolves fans, and a gift three points for the Gunners. Wolves have lost every away game this season, except one (Yes Spurs of course) where they got a draw. Arsenal have scored three goals in just three home games this season, with a couple of 2-0 wins, a 1-0 win and a 1-1 draw. They should bang three past Wolves, so lets go small on the Over.
CRYSTAL PALACE V MAN CITY | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
BACK: Draw (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $4.00) This looks interesting. City sit in second place, just two points behind Arsenal after the Gunners slipped up last week. Palace are in fourth place, just five points behind. There have been Under 2.5 goals in 8/9 Man City away matches against top-six teams. Palace have drawn 6/8 home matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head past 10 shows just one Palace win, in season 21/22. Recent meetings ended LDLDLLD since that win. That pattern indicates a draw here. The past six meetings ended 2-5, 2-2, 2-4, 2-2, 0-1 and 2-4, so it's a bumper fixture for goals. This season at home, Palace have just one loss (the most recent game, 1-2 to Manchester United), and two wins with four draws. City away have three wins, three losses and one draw. This could go either way, but I can see it ending in another Crystal Palace home draw, and it's a great price.
NOTTM FOREST V TOTTENHAM | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
BACK: Tottenham (Match Odds) for 2 units (Rated at $2.90) Big Ange will be watching this with interest as his two former sides clash. It's interesting Forest are favourites at $2.70. I can't see how that is possible with them sitting in 17th place, on four wins from 15 games, against a Spurs side with four wins from seven away from home. Forest have lost four of the past six home games and failed to score in all four. They did draw 2-2 with Manchester United and beat Leeds 3-1 in the only win in the past six at home. Spurs have kept clean sheets in three of their four away wins. After a good 3-0 win in the Champions League on Tuesday night, Spurs look good to start winning more games but the market doesn't have the same faith based on it making Forest favourites. Glory Glory Tottenham Hotspur.
SUNDERLAND V NEWCASTLE | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
LAY: Newcastle (Match Odds) for 3 units (Rated at $2.36) This is the Rangers v Celtic of the Premier League. The Real Madrid v Barcelona of the north east. Only one point separates them on the ladder, with Sunderland in 9th and Newcastle in 12th. Both have six wins. Newcastle have just one away win so far, last week against Everton 4-1. Their first three away were all 0-0, then they lost 1-2, 1-3 and 1-3, before the win against Everton. Sunderland have scored in all seven home games, and are unbeaten, with four wins and three draws. I find it simply astounding that Newcastle are favourites here, with just one away win against a team that is unbeaten at home, and above them on the ladder. Nothing means more to either side than winning this game, it will almost certainly have a red card, maybe two, a load of bookings, but unlikely to see many goals. Sunderland have conceded just seven at home, and as they score in every game here, Newcastle will need at least two to beat them. I just don't see it, as before that rare away win against Everton, Newcastle had scored three goals in six away games.
WEST HAM V ASTON VILLA | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
BACK: Aston Villa (Match Odds) for 5 units (Rated at $2.12) This looks another tough day for West Ham fans. They are in the bottom three and I see them staying there after this game. They have conceded first in 10/12 home matches while Aston Villa have won 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. West Ham have lost by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against top-six teams. Villa are now in third place on 30 points and the Hammers are on 13. Villa have won nine of their past 10 Premier League games, and West Ham have won two of their past 12. The away results for Villa show three wins in their past four (with a 0-2 loss to Liverpool) and the past four at home for West Ham ended 1-1 (Brighton), 1-1 (Manchester United), 0-2 (Liverpool), and 2-2 (Bournemouth). The Head to Head past 10 show West Ham winning the first five, and none of the past five, with three draws and two losses. Despite Villa winning just two of the past 10 meetings, on recent form, they should blow West Ham off the park. They will make in 10/11 wins.
BRENTFORD V LEEDS | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Betting Strategy
BACK: Over 3.5 goals (Over/Under 3.5 goals) for 2 units (Rated at $3.50) On paper this looks an easy Brentford win, but Premier League matches are played on grass. Brentford have won 10/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Leeds have lost by two or more goals in 4/7 away matches. Brentford find themselves languishing in 14th place, with Leeds in 16th after their stunning win against Chelsea (3-1) and draw with Liverpool (3-3). That's six goals in two games, and Brentford lost 0-2 to both Arsenal and Spurs in their past two. The reason for the short Brentford price, is they have won five of seven home games, and three in a row against Burnley (3-1), Newcastle (3-1), and Liverpool (3-2). The past three away for Leeds saw five gaol, four goals and three goals, with the past four Brentford home games seeing four, four and five goals. I am going with Over 3.5 goals, as the home form scares me off backing Leeds at $4.20. We should see a few goals though.
MAN UTD V BOURNEMOUTH | ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
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EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
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2023/24: Manchester City
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2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City
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