Insight Analysis
Talking Points: Champion Fillies Day
We look back at the first day of The Pinnacles and how the winners rated leading in to G1 targets.
Colonel Reeves Stakes – Jokers Grin (120)
Starting things strong with the best performance of the day at Ascot. Jokers Grin will head into the Winterbottom Stakes in career best form having run to a new peakTimeform
rating of 120.That betters his previous best of 116 he ran when winning The Quokka, while he ran to 115 first up in the Prince Of Wales Stakes.
He's beaten Oscar's Fortune by 0.2 lengths less on Saturday but carried 2kg more, hence the higher rating on the Timeform scale, with a bigger gap back to Repossession who ran third in both races, allowing Jokers Grin and Oscar's Fortune to improve on their first up runs.
In terms of Colonel Reeves winners, this is comfortably the highest rated winner on Timeform's record, some five pounds clear of the next best pair of Danny Beau (2008) and Barakey (2012).
It's well clear of some top recent Perth sprinters including Vega Magic, who ran to 109 in 2016 before finishing midfield in the Winterbottom, while Rope Them In ran 111 last year.
Overpass holds a peak Timeform rating of 123 which he achieved last start running fourth in The Everest to Ka Ying Rising. He's run 120 or above on six occasions, but only once in Perth despite winning two Quokkas and two Winterbottoms.
Overpass' runs at Ascot read: 119, 119, 122, 119, 110. It sets up for a cracking contest in two weeks' time.
Champion Fillies Stakes – Pure Excess (105)
The only maiden in the field proved too strong late to win the Champion Fillies Stakes, getting the better of hot favourite Talkanco right on the line.
Given Pure Excess carried just 54kg (vs Talkanco 58kg) the start prior in the Burgess Queen and now met her at level weights, Pure Excess has made a big leap on the Timeform scale, going from 94 to 105.
This means Talkanco has slightly regressed from 106 to 104, perhaps finding the back end of her distance range at a mile.
Only two horses have run better to win the race on the Timeform scale this century: Stormy Nova in 2004, who won by 4.3 lengths and ran to 112, and star filly Arcadia Queen who went 109 in 2018.
The post-race washup was that Pure Excess would head straight to The Northerly, rather than back up in the WA Guineas against the boys.
Three fillies have tried to go straight from the Champion Fillies to The Northerly: Perfect Reflection (1st), Tuscan Queen (7th) and Searchin Roc's (7th).
Perfect Reflection had run 105 and improved to 113 in the Group 1, while Tuscan Queen ran 104 here and Searchin Roc's went 103.
I think the boys, led by King Of Light, still hold the wood over the fillies at this stage but we'll learn more after the WA Guineas on Saturday.
Placid Ark Stakes – Luana Miss (100)
Luana Miss showed a huge turn of foot from a tricky spot to win the Placid Ark, matching her peak rating of 100.
The pace wasn't particularly strong here but she was finishing fast and should have more to offer in a more efficient scenario, which she'll need to if the stable do indeed opt to take on the big guns in the Winterbottom.
A rating of 100, which would be adjusted to 104 at weight-for-age given the fillies' allowance, is still a long way off the likes of Overpass and Jokers Grin who will likely land around the 120 mark.
Only four horses have attempted to go straight from the Placid Ark to the Winterbottom this century- three winners and one second placegetter.
Ripcord beat Oscar's Fortune in 2023, although the latter was definitely the better run, Oscar's Fortune then went on to finish second to Overpass in the Winterbottom with Ripcord in third.
My Bella Mae won the Placid Ark with a Timeform rating of 101 in 2022 but didn't measure up in the Winterbottom when ninth, while Kid Choisir won the Placid Ark with a rating of 109 (the highest on record) but could only manage eighth in the Group 1.
No doubt there's more to offer from Luana Miss given the way she won on Saturday, but this year's Winterbottom won't be one you can get away with.
She'll need to be landing forward of midfield to be winning – close enough to run down Overpass, and far enough in front of Jokers Grin to hold him off, but whether she can make that substantial ratings jump is doubtful.
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