Whistle jacket
Kentucky Derby 151
There's a very rich card on this Saturday in addition to the Derby.
The Grs 1 and 2 start with the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile for f&m with 10 runners. Topping the bill is Team Valor's Special Wan who is following up a win at Gulfstream. Walsh-Saez the relevant humans. Sacred Wish for Weaver-Velazquez has a great record 231-24 and is on 3/1.
Movin' on Up is 5/1 for Joseph-J L Ortiz with a great 144-11 record and then we are going for a roughie in Serene Seraph for Mott-Alvarado on 20/1 which looks generous!
The Pat Day Mile is Gr 2 where Bob Baffert continues to enjoy his return to the Twin Spires and send Madaket Road, a Quality Road Product , to be ridden by Irad Ortiz and on 2/1. Stablemate Gaming is by Game Winner and has Velazquez on board and is on 3/1. We like Built – agree that he hasn't been at his best so far this year BUT the time could be right with Rispoli riding for Catalano and they are on 7/2.
The Twin Spire Turf Sprint 1100m Gr 2 sees Rogue Lightning on 7/2 for Clover-Prat, and then they have been allowed to name a horse after our Champ Think Big which riles somewhat – Sidham-Curtis here and 4/1 the quote. Nobals is a gelding from the Rivelli yard with Corrales riding and he and Run Carson are on 6/1.
The Churchill Downs Stakes is Gr 1 over 1400m with 11 runners headed by Mindframe 3/1 for Pletcher- I Ortiz with Mullikin on 7/2 for Brisset-Saez whose record is 11132. We are then going for Giant Mischief on 8/1 for Cox-Franco as although Nysos is ahead in the market he's only had one start since Feb 2024 and may have fitness issues.
The American Turf Stakes Gr 1 is over 1700m turf and has 14 accepters with 4 emergencies. New Century is a Kitten's Joy product and on 3/1 for Walsh- I Ortiz. Zulu Kingdom is by Ten Sovereigns and on 4/1 for Brown-Prat and Phil d'Amato is sending over Iron Man Cal on 8/1. He's by collected and Fresu will ride. And we are putting Charlie's to Blame 8/1 into the multiples – ignore his last start.
The Derby City Distaff is Gr 1 for f&m over 1400m with 14 runners plus to emergencies.
Scylla (Mott-Rosario) is on 4/1 and is resuming after a 11224 record last prep and we have her ahead of Baffert's Ways and Means on 3/1. Vahva and Emery are both on 6/1 and another Baffert Hope Road is one we have been keeping an eye on and she's 15/1 with J J Herandez on board,
The Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic is Gr 1 over 1800m with a field of 12. It's pretty open with Integration on 4/1 for McCaughey-Dettori. Spirit of St Louis is on 9/2 for Brown – Franco with stablemate Running Bee on 5/1 and Prat In the irons. 6/1 shot Highway Robber – a great name – is not the worst.
And so for the Kentucky Derby itself: Journalism is the obvious favourite and the son of Curlin is 3/1 for McCarthy-Rispoli. Sovereignty is 5/1 for Mott – Alvarado and he's by Into Mischief. Sandman by Tapit is on 6/1 for Casse- J L Ortiz and these three have been in the punters' sights for quite some time now. We think the Japanese dirt specialist Luxor Café has a very good chance and 15/1 very tempting. He's by American Pharoah and trainer Hori is a very good trainer and jockey Joao Moreira a very good jockey. His record at home is 21-111 so he hasn't been seriously challenged up till now.
Baeza makes it into the field with the scratching of Rodriguez and he and Burnham Square who has been working very well come in on 12/1.
The weather isn't looking that good – it will be a question of how much rain and how the horses will react to the conditions.
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