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Racing

Canterbury Winners - Tips For Wednesday, 1st February 2023

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday's Canterbury Park meeting. Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

DYNAMIC IMPACT.
DYNAMIC IMPACT. Picture: Martin King / Sportpix

Race 1 - 2:20PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1200 METRES)
Leaning towards 8. Queen Of Dragons who wasn't suited to the sit/sprint tempo on debut at Rosehill but still ran on well into fourth. Further, the form of that race has been proven, with Red Resistance subsequently winning the Group 3 Canonbury Stakes (1100m). The late market suggested she would improve from the run and all key indicators suggest the rise in distance will be ideal. Additionally, she can settle closer from the soft draw, and it's Craig William's only ride for the day.

Dangers: 4. The Little Pumper started the $4.20 favourite last start at Rosehill and tried hard in defeat after racing in the inferior ground. He has since trialled well behind boom filly Learning To Fly. Expect him to roll forward and give a sight. 2. Militarize won a recent trial at Rosehill and hit the line well under riding. Market watch on 3. Snowman and 7. Kervette brings race experience.

How to play it: Queen Of Dragons WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Race 2 - 2:55PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1580 METRES)
Keen on 6. Alfano coming out of the Anthony Cummings yard, and he looks set to peak fourth-up. The gelding has a strong platform, and his run was full of merit last start at Newcastle in a high-rating race. Further, he got too far back but ran on hard and savaged the line, clocking one of the fastest final 600m splits of the entire meeting. He gets a positive race set up here, with the step up in distance being ideal, and he can settle closer from the soft gate. In addition, his ratings/sectional profile suggests he can step again and repeating his last start figure/effort will make him hard to beat.

Dangers: 1. Beauty Crusade had too much to do 37 days ago at Randwick, and he ran on into third place in a strong time race. The three-year-old maps positively and races well off a freshen-up. 2. Utopian Spirit had excuses last start, and he receives jockey James McDonald for the first time. 3. Eau De Vie jumps to the metropolitan level but is a consistent type.

How to play it: Alfano WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 3 - 3:30PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
1. Hollywood Hero was solid on debut at this track, running third and was held up at a vital stage in the final straight. However, once clear, he savaged the line, clocking one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting and went through the line full of energy. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and there have been four subsequent winners to confirm the form. He must contend with a tricky draw, but James McDonald rides and expect a bold showing.

Dangers: Debutante 6. Dakota Vroom is a nice type and has trialled well in preparation for this assignment. Moreover, She responded well to riding to win her latest heat at Warwick Farm. 7. Lalaguna gets the blinkers back on and maps to control the pace. 5. Aurinko can improve and add 2. Botanica to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Hollywood Hero WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 4 - 4:05PM TAB HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
1. Dynamic Impact surged to the line to score first-up at this track and ran the fastest final 600m/400/200m splits of the meeting. The gelding then had 29 days between runs and was honest in a stronger grade last start at Rosehill, albeit run to suit. He drops in grade, is unbeaten at this course, blinkers go back on, and Jason Collett has ridden him once for a win. Additionally, he can sprint off slow/fast tempos and expect him to look for the last shot.

Dangers: 4. The Empire is a potential improver and wasn't suited first-up to the sit/sprint tempo. He can settle closer; Brenton Advulla rides and can rate to win. 2. Game Theory is rock-hard fit and has been racing consistently for most of his prep. 8. Lady Shenanigans gets in well at the weights, and any track deterioration will suit 3. Tawfiq Lass.

How to play it: Dynamic Impact WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 5 - 4:40PM MICROPHONE FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1900 METRES)
Tricky race. 6. Karlstad has been honest this campaign in solid time races, and he is ready to peak fourth-up. The gelding maps to have all favours from a soft draw, and Nash Rawiller rides, which will suit him. He brings a competitive last-start figure, and expect him to be in the finish.

Dangers: 5. Field Legend wasn't suited second-up at Warwick Farm, but to his credit, he ran on ok. The four-year-old is ready to improve and will run out the trip. NZ import 7. Sophia's Magic loomed to win last start at this track/distance and found the line well, running second. She gets a favourable race setup, and James McDonald rides. 8. Nicochet is down in grade and is a knockout chance.

How to play it: Karlstad WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 6 - 5:15PM CALYX FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1580 METRES)
7. Mystic Mermaid stepped sharply up in distance last start at this track and chased a fast tempo throughout. Further, he was blocked at a critical stage and battled on well. The four-year-old will have benefited significantly from that outing, and he profiles as a leading contender. Last prep, she produced her career peak figure at this track/distance off a freshen-up, and she gets a similar setup here. In addition, James McDonald rides from a soft gate. Expect a bold showing.

Dangers: 4. Journalism had every chance first-up at Wyong but won well after being heavily backed late in the trade $3.0-$2.5. He will be fitter for that and is suited up in distance. 2. Kirkeby is ticking over ok and market watch on 6. Unrelenting who can bounce back.

How to play it: Mystic Mermaid WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Race 7 - 5:50PM EXCEEDANCE'S FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
9. Compassionate was specked $7-$5.5 last start at this track, but she had excuses. The mare had to race wide, but to her credit, she battled on well to hold third. She is rock-hard fit and receives a significant barrier change, allowing her to either lead or box seat. Moreover, she has multiple winning figures and represents value. Each-way.

Dangers: 1. Recommendation resumed as a gelding and was solid first-up running third behind subsequent winner Think About It. The three-year-old has a tricky draw but expect a positive ride with Tim Clark riding for the first time. 11. Dame Cartland won impressively first-up at Newcastle, and she did it in style. The filly has the key asset of acceleration and can make the step in grade. 3. Powerful Peg is racing well and drops in grade. Market watch on 7. Miyoshi who receives the blinkers for the first time.

How to play it: Compassionate E/W ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Best Bet: Race 2 # 6 - Alfano

Next Bet: Race 3 # 1 - Hollywood Hero

Best Value: Race 7 # 9 - Compassionate


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