Racing
A Closer Look – Doomben 10,000
Single-digit barriers have dominated the Doomben 10,000 in the 2000s
A low barrier draw does not always translate to an increased chance of winning, but one Group 1 race that a single-digit gate has been crucial in is the Doomben 10,000.
It has been 25 years since the $1.5 million event, which will be run at Doomben this Saturday, has been won by a horse from a double-digit barrier.
That was Mr Innocent, who won from gate 12 in a field of 15 in 2000 when it was run over 1350 metres.
Since 2017 the 10,000 has been run over 1200m, but the dominance of low draws has transferred over.
The widest gate to have supplied a winner since Mr Innocent's win is nine, which was where Falvelon started from in 2002, while Mazu (2022) is the only winner from eight in that timeframe, meaning 21 of the past 23 winners have started from barrier seven or lower.
Seven is the most successful starting position since 2001 with five wins, barriers three and four have provided four each, the inside two alleys three apiece, while gates five and six feature once.
Stats favouring low barriers in weight-for-age events can sometimes be misleading, with many perpetually attracting a small field, but the Doomben 10,000 is not one of them.
Beaded defeated six rivals in 2011 and there were fields of nine last year and in 2016, but all other editions since 2001 have had at least 10 runners.
Thirteen of the last 23 have had at least 13 runners, eight of them containing at least 16 runners.
Seventeen of the last 23 Doomben 10,000s have gone to horses drawn the inside half of the field.
Several of the leading chances in this year's Doomben 10,000 are drawn wide with Sunshine In Paris in 14, Mazu 13, Schwarz 11 and Overpass 10, but they all come in one position following the scratching of Estriella (barrier five).
The set-up presents punters with a dilemma in what has been a good race for those towards the head of the market.
Ten of the 23 Doomben 10,000s since 2001 have been won by the favourite or equal favourite and 12 of the past 17 winners started $7 or shorter.
The two shortest-priced horses drawn the inside half of the field this year are $5.50 chance Benedetta, who will come into barrier seven, and Jedibeel ($10), who has gate three.
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