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Sports - AFL

2024 AFL Round 1 Preview – CARLTON v RICHMOND

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of games in the 2024 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

CARLTON v RICHMOND

Thursday 14 March @ MCG

Well it is the traditional Season Opener – oh wait!! Not that they should have it every year anyway.

Both have had the run, in racing parlance, but boy were they different form lines.

Carlton came from further back than Walla Walla against a top side away from home. That reads like good form. Richmond also gave away panels at half time and had the temerity to get to around 4 goals down in the last quarter.

Charlie Curnow could explode again
Charlie Curnow could explode again Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images
What does that all mean? Well surely the psychological returns are only flowing one way. Having been beaten up by Richmond for nearly a decade as the Tigers hit all the heights and Carlton hit all the lows, things look to flip now.

It was great theatre and excellent composure not to completely panic when they were jumped by the Lions. Over 7 goals down, they flicked the Charlie Curnow switch and the sirens went off.

Plus Harry McKay exorcised a few demons with the kick late in the game. Sadly they have to do it without Sam Docherty now and even if he's not Luke Hodge ability wise, he was the spiritual leader. Long term it could hurt.

It was almost the opposite for Richmond who were listless to kick off the year. They snagged the first and from then on fell asleep.

When a team piles on 11 straight then something tactically or technically is not working.

So while you shouldn't really judge any team without their best available, and Richmond were depleted by many of their best, it showed.

Will Tom Lynch be able to impact like before?
Will Tom Lynch be able to impact like before? Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images
No Martin, Lynch and Nankervis will impact a result. Question is will they provide more however many they get back this week?

If Carlton's midfield holds firm, and their backline plays like they did in Brisbane, it is hard to see the Tigers defending well enough. The pulsating run and carry can overwhelm here. If Gold Coast puts that many on, imagine all those Colemans coming at you.

Carlton should win by plenty. Perhaps rain is all that might scuttle the margin.

Match Selection: Carlton by 33 points

Suggested Bets: Charlie Curnow 4+ goals @ $2.40 @ bet365


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